We’ve reviewed a number of MLB betting strategies over the past several weeks, and this time we’ll dive into a topic that involves much more research – finding motivational spots to back or fade pitchers based on their previous outings.
What we are looking for are either good pitchers that are coming off a tough outing, or weaker pitchers that are coming off a very good outing, and looking for those starters to revert back to their normal performances in their very next game.
Let’s take a look at the Cardinals Michael Wacha. He has been very kind to MLB bettors this season, having earned 7.7 units of profit in all of his starts, and 5.5 units of profit in his ten road outings. Wacha has made 17 starts overall this season heading into Tuesday night’s matchup against the White Sox, with 12 of those 17 outings resulting in Wacha allowing 2 earned runs or less.
In those occurrences where he’s been subpar, he has always come back to pitch well in his very net game (one of those occurrences takes place Tuesday night).
In the past few weeks, we’ve discusses a number of different ways to handicap MLB baseball games. This week we’ll review a method of MLB betting that doesn’t involve much in terms of dissecting statistics and pitcher/team history, rather we just follow the money.
Some MLB bettors let others do the handicapping for them. By following the line movement on the games, they can get a glimpse into what teams the sharp players – or professional sports bettors – are backing.
This method is a bit dangerous as they have to first figure out why the line has moved. MLB favorites can see their price rise or fall for a number of reasons – perhaps a pitching change, a key player getting a day of rest, or even a weather update.
Betting on MLB Big Favorites is risky – having to lay a -200 or higher price means you need to have a very high winning percentage in order to turn a profit. There is an alternative, however, which is to lay a run and a half with these big favorites to get much better odds.
It’s important to note that betting MLB favorites on the runline is not only an advantage when that teams wins by at least two runs, but also when these big favorites lose outright, as the loss is far less than if that team was bet on the moneyline.
Let’s take a look at the Texas Rangers, who are coming off a three-game sweep at home at the hands of the LA Angels. Texas was a small home underdog in all three of those games. Betting against the Rangers in all three of those defeats would net a bettor a total of 3 units of profit.
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