We’ve reviewed a number of MLB betting strategies over the past several weeks, and this time we’ll dive into a topic that involves much more research – finding motivational spots to back or fade pitchers based on their previous outings.
What we are looking for are either good pitchers that are coming off a tough outing, or weaker pitchers that are coming off a very good outing, and looking for those starters to revert back to their normal performances in their very next game.
Let’s take a look at the Cardinals Michael Wacha. He has been very kind to MLB bettors this season, having earned 7.7 units of profit in all of his starts, and 5.5 units of profit in his ten road outings. Wacha has made 17 starts overall this season heading into Tuesday night’s matchup against the White Sox, with 12 of those 17 outings resulting in Wacha allowing 2 earned runs or less.
In those occurrences where he’s been subpar, he has always come back to pitch well in his very net game (one of those occurrences takes place Tuesday night).
Wacha came back strong to allow 0, 1, 2, and 1 earned runs in starts immediately following games he allowed more than 2 ER’s in his previous start, with all four of those games resulting in St. Louis victories. Most recently, he held the Cubs to 1 earned run over six innings in an 8-1 victory that was never in doubt.
We also try look for the opposite situation, looking for weaker or average pitchers that are coming off a fantastic outing, and then fading them to revert back to normal in their next game. Of course, according to most sportsbook pay per head reviews, there are other factors to consider as well, including the history of that pitcher against that particular opponent, whether there are any injuries involved, and the offensive strength of the opponent he faces.
One system professional sports bettors use is to fade pitchers immediately after throwing a no-hitter. These pitchers are often big favorites thanks to the national exposure they received in the past week, and the online sportsbooks tend to bump up the price with the expectation of the general betting public backing them in droves.
While we don’t recommend using this MLB betting strategy on its own, we do suggest adding this MLB betting tip to your handicapping arsenal and find out what results you get for yourself. We’ll be back next week with more MLB betting tips.
