In the past few weeks, we’ve discusses a number of different ways to handicap MLB baseball games. This week we’ll review a method of MLB betting that doesn’t involve much in terms of dissecting statistics and pitcher/team history, rather we just follow the money.
Some MLB bettors let others do the handicapping for them. By following the line movement on the games, they can get a glimpse into what teams the sharp players – or professional sports bettors – are backing.
This method is a bit dangerous as they have to first figure out why the line has moved. MLB favorites can see their price rise or fall for a number of reasons – perhaps a pitching change, a key player getting a day of rest, or even a weather update.
If none of these factors are relevant, then we can reasonably assume that the line movement is due to the action received by the sportsbook pay per head companies on the matchup. In theory, if one side is heavily bet, then that team’s price goes up (or decreases if it is an underdog).
There is another reason for the line movement, however, and that is what we are looking for when following the sharp action. If the amount wagered on one team is significantly higher, but the line is moving the “wrong” direction, then that is an indication that the sharp players are responsible for the line move.
Going against the general betting public and following the sharp action puts you on the side of the professional bettors. The online sportsbooks move the line in order to prevent these professional bettors from maximizing their profit.
These wagers tend to be on teams that are listed as underdogs, and also backing pitchers that are either unknown or coming off a poor outing. Sometimes they go against big-name pitchers they view as being overvalued. For example, last year’s AL Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber has a losing 4-10 record at the All-Star Break.
These types of pitchers don’t typically get much action from the general public, and as such are viewed as a “value play” by the sharps. Backing a majority of underdogs means these MLB bettors can score a big profit with even a 50% winning percentage.
This type of MLB betting strategy is a bit complicated for the beginning MLB bettor. But when used in conjunction with other MLB handicapping methods it can be a helpful component to an overall MLB betting strategy.
