We are down to the final four teams in the 2018 CONCACAF Gold Cup Tournament, and while the group play offered little drama, there was a ton of action over this past weekend.
The United States looked flat throughout their group stage play but exploded for six goals in a shutout 6-0 victory against Cuba – the second loss by that score line the Cubans suffered in this tournament.
After finishing on top of Group B, Jamaica got past Haiti 1-0 and will now face the Americans on Wednesday night. USA was a 20:1 favorite to get past Cuba, but now face a much stiffer challenge in the eyes of the sportsbook pay per head as they are a -215 choice to win in regulation. Jamaica returns a hefty +725 payout if they pull the upset, with a tied score after 90 minutes plus injury time resulting in a +310 payday.
On the other half of the bracket, both Panama and Mexico are extremely fortunate to still be alive in this tournament. Panama outlasted Trinidad & Tobago, advancing 6-5 on penalty kicks. Both teams had more than enough chances to secure their entry into the semifinals, but big saves and missed shots extended the shootout to 9 chances total per team, with Panama eventually advancing.
Mexico was the beneficiary of an extremely fortunate call just before the second overtime ended, but took advantage with a penalty kick to avoid the shootout and advance. Still, Mexico has looked shaky throughout this tournament while always being considered one of the favorites to win it all.
Despite their average play so far, Mexico is still a decisive -160 choice to advance in regulation, with a draw earning +255 and an outright Panama upset delivering a +525 payout.
Given the way the three “even” matchups played out this past weekend (we’re not counting the USA vs. Cuba matchup as “even”), the Unders look to be the best value on the board in both games.
USA vs. Jamaica has an over/under of 2.5 goals, despite the fact that USA’s offense has been less-than-stellar outside of that Cuba blowout, and Jamaica has only allowed two goals this entire tournament. Mexico and Panama have both proved to be solid defensively while playing unconfident in the attacking third, and with a posted total of 2 goals, that combined attention to defense should dominate play.
The winners and losers of Wednesday’s games will have one more game to go, with the losers playing for third place on Saturday and the winners meeting up Sunday for the Gold Cup.
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