While having NFL teams remain undefeated after five weeks of the season isn’t uncommon, the amount of undefeated teams we have this year (6) is a bit higher than usual. This is the time of the season where these undefeated teams start to become heavily bet by the general betting public, and therefore these teams become overvalued.
As teams get further into the season without losing, casual NFL bettors tend to put a heavier emphasis on outright victories and pay far less attention to ATS records.This leads to the online sportsbooks gradually raising the lines on these undefeated teams, and even if they start to lose ATS but win outright, these lines will continue to go up.
Atlanta started the year with three consecutive victories in the role of the underdog. They have since been favored in their two most recent games, covering the spread in a blowout win against Houston and then suffering their first ATS loss of the year in a six-point overtime win vs. Washington as a 7-point home favorite.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason kicks off Thursday night, headlined by Buffalo visiting Cleveland on ESPN. Both teams suffered close defeats in their preseason openers, with Buffalo losing by a single point against Carolina, and the Browns falling by a field goal against Washington. Browns fourth-string quarterback Connor Shaw injured his thumb and will be out several weeks, but he wasn’t expected to see much action anyway. The first-string offense marched down the field and scored a touchdown, and the second-string offense looked pretty good with Johnny Manziel. The running game was awful, though, and will likely be the focal point on this matchup.
Seattle at Kansas City is the featured contest of two Friday night games, being carried on the NFL Network. Seattle had been a great team to back in the preseason the last few years, but they lost outright against Denver in their opener while KC had little issue getting past Arizona. The online sportsbooks opened the Seahawks as a small one-point road favorite due to their recent preseason success.
Saturday sees the most action with eight games scheduled. Two teams we are focusing on are Minnesota and Philadelphia. The Vikings are already off to a 2-0 start and are a perfect 6-0 straight up under head coach Mike Zimmer in preseason play. Philly led the NFL in preseason points scored last year, and they put up 36 points in their preseason opener last week vs. Indy. Both of those teams are favored to win again.
We are down to the final four teams in the 2018 CONCACAF Gold Cup Tournament, and while the group play offered little drama, there was a ton of action over this past weekend.
The United States looked flat throughout their group stage play but exploded for six goals in a shutout 6-0 victory against Cuba – the second loss by that score line the Cubans suffered in this tournament.
After finishing on top of Group B, Jamaica got past Haiti 1-0 and will now face the Americans on Wednesday night. USA was a 20:1 favorite to get past Cuba, but now face a much stiffer challenge in the eyes of the sportsbook pay per head as they are a -215 choice to win in regulation. Jamaica returns a hefty +725 payout if they pull the upset, with a tied score after 90 minutes plus injury time resulting in a +310 payday.
On the other half of the bracket, both Panama and Mexico are extremely fortunate to still be alive in this tournament. Panama outlasted Trinidad & Tobago, advancing 6-5 on penalty kicks. Both teams had more than enough chances to secure their entry into the semifinals, but big saves and missed shots extended the shootout to 9 chances total per team, with Panama eventually advancing.
We’ve reviewed a number of MLB betting strategies over the past several weeks, and this time we’ll dive into a topic that involves much more research – finding motivational spots to back or fade pitchers based on their previous outings.
What we are looking for are either good pitchers that are coming off a tough outing, or weaker pitchers that are coming off a very good outing, and looking for those starters to revert back to their normal performances in their very next game.
Let’s take a look at the Cardinals Michael Wacha. He has been very kind to MLB bettors this season, having earned 7.7 units of profit in all of his starts, and 5.5 units of profit in his ten road outings. Wacha has made 17 starts overall this season heading into Tuesday night’s matchup against the White Sox, with 12 of those 17 outings resulting in Wacha allowing 2 earned runs or less.
In those occurrences where he’s been subpar, he has always come back to pitch well in his very net game (one of those occurrences takes place Tuesday night).
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