Betting on MLB Big Favorites is risky – having to lay a -200 or higher price means you need to have a very high winning percentage in order to turn a profit. There is an alternative, however, which is to lay a run and a half with these big favorites to get much better odds.
It’s important to note that betting MLB favorites on the runline is not only an advantage when that teams wins by at least two runs, but also when these big favorites lose outright, as the loss is far less than if that team was bet on the moneyline.
Let’s take a look at the Texas Rangers, who are coming off a three-game sweep at home at the hands of the LA Angels. Texas was a small home underdog in all three of those games. Betting against the Rangers in all three of those defeats would net a bettor a total of 3 units of profit.
We will assume that our MLB Bettor is a $100 player, meaning he bets $100 on teams that are underdogs and lays the juice in order to win $100 when betting on MLB favorites.
Our player would have wagered a total of $340 to win $300 – a total return on investment of 88.2%. That’s very good for a three- day period for any of the best sports betting software platform!
If that player would have faded the Rangers on the runline, however, he would have scored a huge profit. Laying the run and a half would result on the Angels having underdog lines of +135, +145, and +125. Our player would have needed to wager a total of $300 in order to win $405 – a return on investment of 135%.
What would happen if the Angels lost one of those games? Let’s say the Rangers won the series finale while LA was a -125 favorite. The moneyline player would still be up for the series, netting a profit of $75 with a 22% ROI. Our runline player once again fares better, however, netting a $180 profit and a 60% return on investment.
Betting MLB Runlines becomes advantageous in games with huge favorites. Having to lay -200 or higher means having to risk a ton of cash in order to make a little profit. But playing these big favorites on the runline significantly reduces the amount of risk involved.
Of course, the downfall to playing the runline is when our favorites wins by a single run. MLB bettors need to ask themselves if the lower risk and higher payday is worth the offset of losing a one-run game. There are some tips to betting on MLB runlines – backing road teams means they’ll have an extra inning to bat and it’s a good idea to stay away from teams with poor closers who may give up a run or two in the ninth but still close the win.
We’ll be back next week with more MLB Betting Tips – good luck!
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